The “Should Have Been Interceptions” List 2017-18

 In Blog

Often times a QB throws a pass well, doing what he ought to do on that play, but the receiver makes a mistake that causes an interception, like tip the ball into the air or not come back to the ball as  he should or accidentally falling down or some other dumb play. On the stat sheet, that play goes down as an INT, but should it?

Another source of interceptions that might not be the QB’s fault is the “Hail Mary” pass at the end of halves. Sometimes they get picked-off and listed as INT’s on the stat sheet, but they aren’t really all that bad.

And then, on the flip-side, there are times when the QB makes a terrible pass, and just by luck, the defender drops a pass that should have been intercepted. Or the QB throws an INT but then the defense gets called for a bogus or irrelevant penalty, that maybe had nothing to do with the pass or the potential catch, and yet the INT gets wiped off the books.

But we ought to want to account for these type of plays, shouldn’t we?

We want to know about the errant passes made by QB’s that didn’t show up in the stat sheet and we also want to know about the QB’s that were better than maybe we realized. That’s what this post is all about.

I have watched every play of every team from the 2017-18 NFL season and I have sought to document those lucky and unlucky plays.

The list may not be perfect, mostly because it is somewhat subjective. There are many times where it is certainly obvious on a play that the pass ought to have been intercepted, but in other cases I had to make a judgment call as to whether or not I would count it as a “Should Have Been Interception” (SHBI) type of play. But this table gives you a pretty good idea about the luckiness of a QB (or lack thereof).

This list includes the top 50 NFL passers from the 2017-18 regular season.

INT= Total sum of actual interceptions thrown by the QB (per ESPN.com).
SHBI= Errant Passes that “Should Have Been Intercepted” but were dropped by the defender or wiped-out by an irrelevant penalty.
SNHBI= These are passes that “Should Not Have Been Intercepted” which are passes that were intercepted because of a clear error made by the receiver. I have also included any passes intercepted at the end of a half on a “Hail Mary” pass as they should not be held against the QB.

 

Name INT SHBI SNHBI Adjusted Total
Deshone Kizer 22 8 5 25
Kirk Cousins 13 10 2 21
Jameis Winston 11 10 0 21
Trevor Siemian 14 7 0 21
Derek Carr 13 9 2 20
Dak Prescott 13 9 4 18
Matt Stafford 10 9 1 18
Eli Manning 13 7 2 18
Ben Roethlisberger 14 4 0 18
Joe Flacco 13 9 5 17
Jay Cutler 14 4 1 17
Marcus Mariota 15 3 1 17
Cam Newton 16 4 3 17
Andy Dalton 12 7 3 16
Philip Rivers 10 7 1 16
Blake Bortles 13 5 3 15
Russ Wilson 11 5 1 15
Carson Palmer 7 7 0 14
Josh McCown 9 5 0 14
Carson Wentz 7 6 0 13
Tom Brady 8 5 0 13
Brett Hundley 12 2 1 13
Drew Brees 8 5 1 12
Jacoby Brissett 7 5 1 11
Alex Smith 5 5 0 10
Jared Goff 7 4 1 10
Case Keenum 7 5 3 9
Blaine Gabbert 6 3 0 9
Tom Savage 6 3 0 9
Mitch Trubisky 7 4 3 8
Brian Hoyer 4 4 0 8
Matt Ryan 12 2 6 8
Deshaun Watson 8 2 3 7
Matt Moore 5 2 1 6
Kevin Hogan 5 1 0 6
Drew Stanton 5 1 0 6
Jimmy Garoppolo 5 1 0 6
Aaron Rodgers 6 0 0 6
Nathan Peterman 5 1 0 6
Mike Glennon 5 1 1 5
Brock Osweiler 5 1 1 5
CJ Beathard 6 1 3 4
Paxton Lynch 3 1 0 4
Tyrod Taylor 4 2 3 3
Nick Foles 2 1 0 3
Bryce Petty 3 0 0 3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 3 0 0 3
T.J. Yates 3 0 0 3
Matt Cassel 2 0 0 2
Scott Tolzien 2 0 0 2