Fantasy Football is All About Value
I have had a lot of success in fantasy football over the last two decades, and the main reason I have been so good is really quite simple… it’s the same reason why real estate developers make money: Buy Low!!!
I know that the overwhelming majority of fantasy football participants would agree with this statement, but it is always shocking to me how many fantasy football owners violate this every single year. Literally, 99% of guys tell me they look for value but yet every year it feels like less than 10% of those same guys actually target undervalued players.
Every year I have guys that asked me, “Hey bro, what do you think of my roster?” My answer is always the same. “I have no idea.” It’s hard to just look at a roster and determine if you drafted well or not. Why? Well, because players do not inherently have any value. Everything is relative.
Let me give you an example. What if you told me that you just bought a brand-new car. Let’s say you bought a Honda Accord that is valued at $30,000. Let’s say you paid $30,000 for that car. Let’s say you asked me, “What do you think of my car?” I’d probably say, “Sure, nice. Hondas have great reputations.”
But you paid full price!
Now, is paying full price a bad thing? Not if you actually get what you paid for, right? I mean, if the Honda runs great for you and you love it, that’s awesome! But you still paid $30,000. The question would be, “Could I have gotten similar results from another car for less money?”
Okay… so, let’s say your friend buys a slightly used to Honda Accord, similar model to yours, but maybe it’s just one year older than yours. Let’s say that his car is low miles and valued at $24,000 but because of his connections he is able to buy it at $14,000.
Which scenario is better? Which would you prefer? The car valued at $30k that cost you $30k or would you rather have the car valued at $24k that only cost $15k? Well, it’s obvious. The better “deal” will be better. Why? Because that guy got a very similar car but paid $16k less… meaning he could spend that same $16k elsewhere.
In this scenario, the guy that bought the used Honda Accord got the better value.
Now, I realize that this is a very shaky metaphor in some ways, but I do think it gives us a slight understanding of the importance of value… and this concept should govern our choices in fantasy football.
Value should be the name of the game!!!!
The owner that gets the best value picks is the owner most likely to win a league title. The owner that is able to draft players that will far out-play their average draft position (ADP) is the owner that will win a lot of games!
The days of drafting the totally “Darkhorse sleepers” is pretty much gone, with the advent of the internet and the incredible rise in popularity a fantasy football, there is simply too much fantasy football information out there, making it very tough to mine those darkhorse gems. Too many people are just too knowledgeable these days, so the deep sleeper might not be as easy to keep secret, but the ability to target “undervalued” players is still very much alive in fantasy football and ought to be your main goal every time you pick.
The goal is simply this: Select a player that is highly likely to outperform the draft spot at which you are drafting that player.
Remember, players don’t have inherent value.
If you tell me that you drafted Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick of your draft this year, I will tell you I hate that pick. But if you tell me you have Aaron Rodgers on your roster because you drafted him in the fifth round, I would tell you that is awesome!
Remember, the player itself isn’t necessarily the problem, it’s the value that players represent that matter. Every player has some value. Every player has something worth investing in, it’s up to you to get more production than what you pay for.